Extreme heat and cold are pushing thousands of Canberrans into emergency departments each year and experts predict that a warming climate is poised to intensify the strain across the ACT.
The Australian National University-led research found that almost 36,000 ED presentations between 2000 and 2021 were linked to heat, representing 1 in 40 (2.5%) of all visits. That number is projected to increase up to 90,000 presentations (2.7% of all ED visits) between 2040 and 2061 as the climate continues to warm.
The study, published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, is the first to examine how extreme temperatures affect emergency department (ED) presentations in the territory, a region known for its cold winters and hot summers.
Historical weather and hospital emergency department data were analysed to determine how temperature has affected past ED visits and used climate change scenarios to predict how future demand is likely to change.
Cold weather in the ACT has typically caused more ED presentations. More than 57,600 ED presentations (4%) over the two decades analysed were associated with cold conditions. While the share of cold-related presentations is expected to fall as winters warm, cold exposure is still projected to drive over 81,000 visits between 2040 and 2061.
“Our research found that ED presentations in the ACT increased when temperatures were high, as well as when temperatures dropped below 14 degrees. Extreme weather accounted for about 1 in 15 ED visits,” said study lead author Dr Michael Tong from ANU.
Experts say that the study not only offers a warning about how climate change will impact Canberrans’ health and the need for the health system to adapt, but also a reminder for those at risk to take care.
“Our research showed that young people under 20 are significantly more likely to end up in hospital emergency department on hot days, usually on the day itself. Likewise, adults aged 20-60 were at increased risk on both extreme and moderate heat days.
“People aged over 60 were more likely to end up in hospital emergency department after extreme cold weather but also are still vulnerable during heatwaves,” said Dr Tong.
Climate change was presenting one of our biggest public health challenges, warned Director of ANU National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Professor Hilary Bambrick.
“This study shows that even a small increase in local temperature can make people unwell, and this intensifies pressure on our hospitals.
“How we stay safe in a hotter climate and how we ensure our health systems can cope with additional load are now urgent priorities.”
Two Decades of Climate Change and its Impact on Emergency Department Presentations in the Australian Capital Territory: Past Trend and Future Projection was published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health on 8 January 2026. Access here.
